THE latest general election polling data from YouGov projects that the Liberal Democrats will win the Yeovil seat on July 4.

Conservative candidate Marcus Fysh has held the Yeovil constituency seat since 2015.

While Mr Fysh increased his majority in 2019, he faces a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, who won many of the council seats in this part of the county  the local elections in May 2022.

YouGov says that Yeovil is likely to change to Liberal Democrats from Conservative. 

The model, which uses survey data from almost 60,000 respondents, is designed to tell what would happen if a general election happened today, based on people’s voting intention as it currently stands.

It is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward July 4. YouGov says:

  • Lib Dem candidate Adam Dance will win 43% of the vote
  • Conservative candidate Marcus Fysh will win 29.4% of the vote
  • Labour candidate Rebecca Montacute will win 12.9% of the vote
  • Reform candidate Marcus Burdge will win 11.9% of the vote
  • Green candidate Serena Wootton will win only 3.7% of the vote

For the most part, the boundaries of the new Yeovil seat are the same as the current Yeovil constituency, which has been represented by Conservative MP Marcus Fysh since 2015.

However, the new Yeovil constituency will not include the villages between Podimore and the northern edge of Yeovil itself, which will become part of Glastonbury and Somerton.

The Yeovil seat includes the largest population areas within the former South Somerset district – including Yeovil, Chard, Crewkerne and Ilminster, though Castle Cary and Wincanton do not feature.

Candidates standing for the seat are: Mark Burdge (Reform UK), Adam Dance (Lib Dems), Marcus Fysh (Conservative), Dr Rebecca Montacute (Labour), Nidah Shah (Workers’ Party of Britain) and Serena Wootton (Green Party).

A general election will take place on July 4, with the electorate taking to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament to represent the constituency for the next five years. 

Nationally, YouGov suggests that Labour will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons with 422. The Conservatives will be the opposition party with 140 seats, Lib Dem will have 48 seats.